- Diraac/sougum rains started late and weather forecasts are not favourable until May
- Food security likely to deteriorate for pastoralists and poor urban households until June/July
Unfavourable prospects for diraac/sougum rains
The onset of diraac/sougum rains (March to May) is late in pastoral inland areas, especially in western Dikhil region where the season is usually expected to start at the end of March. Early meteorological forecasts point to below average rains along the season, with likely negative impact on pasture and water availability. Animal body conditions and production of milk, an important source of food for pastoralists, are also expected to worsen.
Relatively improved rains were reported around the capital city and coastal areas and are expected to improve local water and pasture conditions. If these rains continue in the following weeks. Significant livestock migrations toward these areas may occur with clustering of animals in limited zones and consequent risk of spreading diseases and escalating conflicts on the use of grazing resources.